In a significant shift for the prediction market landscape, Kalshi officially removed all affiliate badges from X (formerly Twitter) on Monday, February 23, 2026. The move comes as a direct response to a policy update from X that bans paid partnership content from accounts promoting gambling and sports betting services.
X’s Policy Shift: The “Utopian” Cleanup
The decision by Kalshi follows a strategic pivot by X to limit the reach of “prediction market spam.”
- The Policy: Last week, X updated its paid partnerships policy to prohibit affiliate accounts that post about “gambling products and services,” explicitly including social casinos, sports betting, and lotteries.
- The “Bier” Factor: X Head of Product Nikita Bier underscored the platform’s stance by posting a meme depicting a “utopian society” titled “The world without prediction market spam on X.”
- Identity Confusion: A Kalshi spokesperson noted that while the badges were popular with the community, they had become “too difficult to police,” as users frequently confused affiliate posts with official, endorsed messages from the company.
Regulatory Tensions: CFTC vs. The Loophole
The badge removal coincides with a heated legal battle over the classification of prediction markets.
- The Jurisdictional Fight: Newly approved CFTC Chairman Mike Selig has taken a hardline stance, filing an amicus brief in the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit. Selig argues that prediction markets fall exclusively under federal CFTC jurisdiction.
- The Loophole Debate: Critics argue that “sports event contracts” offered by these platforms are essentially sports betting (which is regulated state-by-state). Proponents, backed by a favorable outlook from the Trump administration, view them as financial derivatives legal in all 50 states.
- Polymarket Status: Despite the policy change, several Polymarket affiliate badges remained active as of Monday night. Polymarket, which became X’s “official prediction market partner” in June 2025, has yet to comment on its status.