Hamburg has entered the competitive race to host the 2036, 2040, or 2044 Olympic and Paralympic Games, presenting a comprehensive “Hamburg+” concept that emphasizes existing infrastructure, short distances between venues, and sustainability. The latest developments reveal the city has crafted a financial framework projecting €4.9 billion in revenues to offset a budget of approximately €4.8 billion, positioning the proposal as one of the most financially optimistic in recent Olympic bidding history.
A Conservative Infrastructure Approach
Unlike previous Olympic hosts that constructed extensive new facilities, Hamburg’s proposal represents a markedly different strategy. The concept highlights the use of existing and temporary venues for the various Olympic sports as well as short, fast routes and commutes, with around 87 per cent of the venues either existing or earmarked for construction, requiring only temporary upgrades.
Science City Bahrenfeld would become the Olympic village, thereby forging a vibrant link between science and sport, while the plans also foresee a cutting-edge multifunctional arena with capacity for 60,000 spectators. This approach stands in sharp contrast to the sprawling new construction that characterized previous Games.
The Numbers: Optimism or Overconfidence?
The €4.9 billion projected revenue—designed to nearly match the €4.8 billion operational budget—represents what appears to be a carefully calibrated financial model. However, economic analysts and Olympic historians have sounded warnings about such projections based on historical precedent.
The last three Summer Games cost USD 51 billion (in 2022 prices) and overran budgets by 185% in real terms, with the Paris 2024 Games having seen costs surge from EUR 3.6 billion to 8.8 billion, while Los Angeles 2028 has revised its forecast from USD 5.3 billion to 6.8 billion.
Host City Contract principles set by the International Olympic Committee require host cities, National Olympic Committees, and Organizing Committees to assume full financial responsibility for staging the Olympic Games, with legally binding financial guarantees from host governments making public authorities ultimately responsible for covering any financial shortfalls.
A Concerning Historical Pattern
The structural challenges facing Olympic hosts are well-documented. Over four out of five Olympics and World Cups ran a deficit between 1964 and 2018, with an average return-on-investment for an event being negative (– 38%), with mean costs of USD 2.8 billion exceeding mean revenues of USD 1.7 billion per event.
More critically, the various levels of host government (city, region, nation) have no direct revenues for the Olympic Games but incur most of the costs. This structural imbalance creates significant financial risk for prospective hosts, regardless of initial projections.
Germany’s Multi-City Strategy
Germany’s 2036 bid includes four candidate regions: Berlin, Munich, Hamburg, and the Rhein-Ruhr area. Hamburg also plans to hold a referendum in May 2026, while the German Olympic Sports Federation (DOSB) will review the minimum operational requirements of each bid and in autumn 2026 will reach a decision on the concept to be submitted to the International Olympic Committee IOC for the 2036, 2040 or 2044 Summer Games.
Germany’s government, led by Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil, has endorsed the 2036 Olympic bid, citing social cohesion and financial readiness, with Klingbeil noting that successful organization—referencing the Paris Olympics as a model of sustainability—is key to mitigating financial concerns.
The Broader Olympic Context
The timing of Hamburg’s bid coincides with significant uncertainty in the Olympic selection process. Following the election of Kirsty Coverty as IOC president in 2025, she announced a review of issues facing the Olympics, including the new bidding process, with details on host city election reform being partly announced at the 145th IOC Session in 2026, which included more transparency and a proposed “short-list stage”.
This review has created both delays and opportunities for cities to refine their proposals, as the IOC emphasizes cost containment and sustainability over the grandiose infrastructure projects of previous decades.
Lessons from Recent Games
The financial struggles of recent Olympic hosts provide cautionary tales. It took Montreal until 2006 to pay off the last of its debt from the 1976 Games, while Greece’s billions in Olympics debt helped bankrupt the country, and the debt and maintenance costs of the 2014 Sochi Winter Games will cost Russian taxpayers nearly $1 billion per year for the foreseeable future.
More recently, the 2024 Paris Olympics, which focused on updating widely used city infrastructure ahead of the Games, found that the Games brought only a “modest” 0.07 percent increase to France’s annual gross domestic product (GDP).
IOC’s Contribution: A Partial Solution
One potentially mitigating factor is the International Olympic Committee’s financial support. The IOC gives no money to governments, but exclusively to the Organising Committees for the Olympic and Paralympic Games, with this mainly privately financed through a large contribution from the IOC that comes from its different revenue sources, including The Olympic Partner (TOP) programme and the sale of broadcast rights for the Olympic Games.
Around USD 2.8 billion is put towards the staging of the Olympic Games, to ease the financial burden on the host cities, with the IOC increasing its contribution towards the success of the Games over time.
The Critical Question: Can Hamburg Beat the Odds?
Hamburg’s €4.9 billion revenue projection depends heavily on several factors: successful sponsorship deals, robust ticketing sales, and minimal cost overruns—historically difficult to achieve. The city’s use of existing infrastructure represents a significant cost-saving measure compared to previous Games, but even modest overruns in the €4.8 billion operational budget could create substantial public financial commitments.
Current IOC President Kristy Coventry has begun reviewing the process of selecting host cities—including a pause on deciding the 2036 Games host to examine how the bidding process can be more inclusive, transparent, and cost-effective.
As Hamburg awaits the decision by German Olympic authorities in autumn 2026, the city’s financial framework will undoubtedly face scrutiny from both the IOC and the German public, particularly given Hamburg’s planned May 2026 referendum on the Olympic bid.