Prediction market operator Kalshi recorded $12.4 billion in World Cup trading volume excluding parlays, with the figure rising to $27 billion when combined wagers are included, according to TickerTracker data.
The figure is almost 15 times the $1.75 billion Kalshi generated during this year’s March Madness tournament.
Kalshi entered the World Cup aggressively, signing retired stars from seven different nations, including Clint Dempsey, Rio Ferdinand and David Villa. The company also partnered with Argentina and launched a Timothée Chalamet campaign designed to reach Fox’s broad mainstream audience.
On the product side, Kalshi offered thousands of event contracts that mirrored many of the markets available through legal sportsbooks.
Prediction markets and sportsbooks both grew
The World Cup has intensified the debate over whether prediction exchanges represent a genuine threat to traditional sports betting platforms.
So far, the evidence suggests that both models benefited from the tournament.
Legal sportsbooks in the United States are on course to end six consecutive months of year-on-year declines. Betting volumes in reporting states rose 26% in June, while combined gains across June and July could approach $5 billion, with the World Cup credited as a major driver.
“The World Cup is the World Cup. It’s one of a kind,” said Adam Barrick, Kalshi’s head of sports partnerships. “You can’t even call it a sporting event. It’s a cultural event.”
Barrick believes Kalshi’s broader product offering gives the platform a key advantage over traditional sportsbooks.
Unlike conventional betting platforms focused primarily on sports, Kalshi also allows users to trade contracts linked to pop culture, current events and weather.
The company added approximately 3 million users during the World Cup. Around one-third of those users have since traded outside the sports category, according to Barrick.
“Our product isn’t just sports,” he said.
The World Cup has therefore become a major test for the emerging prediction market sector. Kalshi’s $27 billion in combined volume demonstrates the scale the model can reach around a global sporting event, while the simultaneous growth of traditional sportsbooks suggests prediction markets may currently be expanding the overall betting ecosystem rather than simply replacing existing operators.