Goldman Sachs has released a new analysis arguing that expectations around the 2026 FIFA World Cup’s economic impact are largely overstated.
While the report acknowledges that the tournament will generate strong commercial activity in certain sectors, it concludes that it will not produce a lasting or measurable macroeconomic growth effect for host countries.
The tournament will kick off on June 11 under the organization of FIFA, co-hosted by United States, Mexico, and Canada.
Goldman Sachs economists, drawing on data from previous World Cups, say hosting the tournament produces only a small short-term boost and no statistically significant long-term economic growth. The report suggests that widely cited “economic boom” projections are overly optimistic.
This view contrasts with forecasts from FIFA and the World Trade Organization, which estimate that the tournament could contribute around $17.2 billion to US GDP, generate $40.9 billion in total economic output across host nations, and support approximately 185,000 jobs.
However, Goldman Sachs argues these projections are based on modelling assumptions rather than direct economic output. The report highlights several limiting factors, including spending displacement rather than new consumption, profit leakage to foreign companies, and a post-event normalization of demand. It also notes that the large size of host economies dilutes the relative impact of the event.
Despite the muted macroeconomic outlook, the report says the World Cup will still benefit specific industries. Sportswear, beverages, retail, tourism, and airlines are expected to gain the most. Global brands such as Nike and adidas are highlighted as key beneficiaries.
Goldman Sachs concludes that while the tournament may not be a meaningful driver of national economic growth, it remains a powerful platform for global commerce, brand exposure, and sector-specific gains.